Perioperative prediction

Anaesthesia research 2025

Hi there! 👋

I'm Joe - an NIHR Clinical Lecturer in anaesthesia and ICM working at the University of Birmingham, UK. My PhD focused on the governance, oversight and regulation of AI, predictive models, and other data-driven health technologies.

I'm part of a team focused on the evaluation and regulation of AI and digital health technologies 📈🏥

We ask 3 main questions:

Are they safe?
Are they effective?
Are they equitable?

To learn more about what we do, visit https://www.cersi-ai.org/

Dr Joseph Alderman
BMedSc (Hons) MBChB FRCA PhD

Click the links above to connect via LinkedIn or Twitter/X, or to drop me an email.

References for my talk at Anaesthesia Research 2025:

Alderman, Joseph, Richard Riley, Dhruv Parekh, Charlotte Summers, Xiaoxuan Liu, and Alastair Denniston. ‘Hidden Risks of Predictive Models in Healthcare’. Analysis. BMJ Evidence-Based Medicine, ahead of print, Royal Society of Medicine, 17 September 2025. https://doi.org/10.1136/bmjebm-2025-113730.
European Commission. Guidance Document Medical Devices - Scope, Field of Application, Definition - Qualification and Classification of Stand Alone Software - MEDDEV 2.1/6. n.d.
‘The Medical Devices Regulations 2002 (SI 2002 No 618, as Amended)’. King’s Printer of Acts of Parliament. Accessed 29 November 2023. https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2002/618/regulation/2/made.
Challener, Douglas W., Larry J. Prokop, and Omar Abu-Saleh. ‘The Proliferation of Reports on Clinical Scoring Systems: Issues About Uptake and Clinical Utility’. JAMA 321, no. 24 (2019): 2405–6. https://doi.org/10.1001/jama.2019.5284.
Collins, Gary S., Karel G. M. Moons, Paula Dhiman, et al. ‘TRIPOD+AI Statement: Updated Guidance for Reporting Clinical Prediction Models That Use Regression or Machine Learning Methods’. Research Methods & Reporting. BMJ 385 (April 2024): e078378. https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj-2023-078378.
Moons, Karel G. M., Johanna A. A. Damen, Tabea Kaul, et al. ‘PROBAST+AI: An Updated Quality, Risk of Bias, and Applicability Assessment Tool for Prediction Models Using Regression or Artificial Intelligence Methods’. Research Methods & Reporting. BMJ 388 (March 2025): e082505. https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj-2024-082505.
Charlson, Mary E., Peter Pompei, Kathy L. Ales, and C. Ronald MacKenzie. ‘A New Method of Classifying Prognostic Comorbidity in Longitudinal Studies: Development and Validation’. Journal of Chronic Diseases 40, no. 5 (1987): 373–83. https://doi.org/10.1016/0021-9681(87)90171-8.
Johnstone, C., J. P. Lomas, T. Dixson, P. Walsh, and A. Yousaf. ‘Reassessing the Numbers: Discrepancies, Implications and Potential Solutions for the NELA Risk Calculator’. Anaesthesia 78, no. 11 (2023): 1414–15. https://doi.org/10.1111/anae.16073.

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